What If We Redid the 2018 NBA Draft: A Complete Re-Draft Analysis
Looking back at the 2018 NBA Draft feels like examining a time capsule of what-could-have-bees and missed opportunities. I've spent years analyzing draft classes, and this particular one continues to fascinate me because of how dramatically player values have shifted since that night in Brooklyn. If we were to redraft today with perfect hindsight, the entire first round would look radically different, with several second-round gems climbing into lottery positions and some highly-touted prospects tumbling down the board.
When I first watched the actual draft unfold, I remember being particularly skeptical about the Suns selecting Deandre Ayton first overall. Don't get me wrong—he's developed into a solid NBA center, but in a redraft scenario, I'd have Luka Dončić going number one to Phoenix without a second thought. The Slovenian sensation has not only lived up to the hype but exceeded it, putting up historic numbers including that incredible 2019-20 season where he averaged 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. The Mavericks essentially stole him with the fifth pick, and in our revised draft, they'd never get that opportunity again.
The second pick becomes fascinating in this exercise. While Marvin Bagley III went here originally to Sacramento, I'm sliding Jaren Jackson Jr. into this spot. His defensive impact is just too valuable to pass up—he led the league with 2.3 blocks per game last season while stretching the floor with his three-point shooting. The Grizzlies found an absolute cornerstone when they took him fourth originally, but in our redraft, Sacramento gets their modern big man to build around.
Now here's where it gets really interesting—Trae Young to Atlanta at number three. This maintains the original Dončić-Young trade dynamic but elevates both players in the draft order. Young's offensive brilliance and playmaking (he averaged 10.2 assists last season) make him worth the early selection, though I'll admit his defensive limitations still give me pause about taking him this high. The Hawks would likely make this swap again in a heartbeat given how he's transformed their franchise.
As we move into picks four through ten, we see massive changes from the original draft order. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, originally picked eleventh, rockets up to fourth overall in my redraft. His emergence as a superstar in Oklahoma City has been one of the league's best development stories—he averaged 31.4 points last season while leading Canada to their first-ever medal in World Cup history. Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr. jumps from fourteenth to seventh despite his injury concerns, because when healthy, he's demonstrated he's one of the most efficient scorers in basketball.
The middle of the first round is where the real value emerges in redrafts. Players like Mikal Bridges (originally 10th) and Robert Williams (27th) would see significant boosts due to their defensive versatility and impact. Williams in particular represents one of the best value picks—when available, he's shown he can be a game-changing rim protector and finisher. I'd have him going around pick 15 in our redraft, a full twelve spots higher than his original selection.
What strikes me most about revisiting this draft is how many quality role players emerged from the second round. Mitchell Robinson, who went 36th originally, would likely find himself in the late teens of our redraft given his rebounding and shot-blocking prowess. Similarly, Gary Trent Jr. (originally 37th) would likely climb into the 20s based on his scoring ability and defensive activity.
The international flavor of this draft class deserves special mention. Beyond Dončić, we had players like Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot showing flashes, though he hasn't quite developed into the consistent contributor many hoped for. This reminds me of how player evaluation has evolved—teams now place greater emphasis on proven production against quality competition rather than purely betting on athletic upside.
As I reflect on this redraft exercise, the biggest takeaway is that team development systems matter as much as raw talent. Gilgeous-Alexander might not have blossomed into a superstar elsewhere, just as Porter Jr. might have struggled without Denver's patient approach to his recovery. The success stories from this draft aren't just about identifying talent—they're about finding the right ecosystem for that talent to flourish.
If there's one player I'm higher on than most in this redraft class, it's Jalen Brunson. Originally selected 33rd, I'd have him going in the late lottery around pick 12. His playoff performances with the Knicks have demonstrated he can be the best player on a competitive team, something few projected during his draft process. Meanwhile, I'm lower on Collin Sexton than consensus—while he can score, I question whether his style translates to winning basketball on a contender.
The ripple effects of these changes would reshape the NBA landscape considerably. Imagine a Western Conference where Sacramento has Jackson instead of Bagley, or where Phoenix pairs Devin Booker with Dončić from the beginning. These alternate realities highlight how much fortune is involved in the draft process, despite all the analytics and scouting resources teams deploy.
What continues to surprise me about the 2018 class is its depth—nearly five years later, we're still seeing players from this draft take significant leaps. The development curve appears longer for this group than typical classes, with several players only now entering their primes. This makes the redraft exercise particularly timely, as we finally have enough data to make informed reassessments.
In the end, the 2018 redraft teaches us valuable lessons about player evaluation. It underscores the importance of skill over pure athleticism, the value of basketball IQ, and the critical nature of fit between player and organization. While hindsight is always 20/20, studying these revised draft orders helps inform how we should assess future prospects—focusing less on workout warriors and more on players with translatable, impactful skills that translate to winning basketball.
