Looking Back at the 2015 NBA Draft: Biggest Steals and Busts Revealed
Looking back at the 2015 NBA Draft feels like revisiting a fascinating time capsule of basketball talent evaluation. I've spent years analyzing draft patterns and player development trajectories, and this particular class stands out as one of the most intriguing in recent memory. What strikes me most isn't just the obvious success stories but how dramatically teams' fortunes shifted based on their selections that night. The draft produced several franchise-altering players while simultaneously creating costly misjudgments that set organizations back years.
When I first watched Karl-Anthony Towns go first overall to Minnesota, I remember thinking we were witnessing the emergence of a transformative big man. His rookie season numbers - 18.3 points and 10.5 rebounds - confirmed that initial excitement. But what fascinates me more than the top picks are the players selected outside the lottery who developed into cornerstone pieces. Devin Booker at pick 13 always comes to mind first. Phoenix snagged a future superstar who would eventually average 70 points in a single game, though I still argue his defensive development took longer than it should have. The real magic happened later in the draft though, where teams either demonstrated incredible foresight or displayed shocking evaluation failures.
The steals category absolutely must begin with Montrezl Harrell at pick 32. Houston found an energy big who would become the 2019-20 Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 18.6 points off the bench. But the ultimate steal, in my professional opinion, was Larry Nance Jr. at pick 27. The Lakers identified a versatile forward who could defend multiple positions while providing efficient scoring. His athleticism and basketball IQ made him vastly more valuable than his draft position suggested. What's particularly interesting is how Nance's blocking ability translated to the NBA level. Looking at his development reminds me of how crucial defensive instincts are for late-round successes. Blocking-wise, he demonstrated similar impact to what we see in elite volleyball defenders - the kind who record 0.51 blocks per set - showing that defensive timing transcends sports.
Then there's Josh Richardson at pick 40, whom Miami developed into a legitimate two-way wing. His steal percentage of 2.5% during his third season placed him in the 85th percentile for his position. These weren't just role players - they became quality starters who dramatically outperformed their draft capital. What separates successful late picks from early busts often comes down to work ethic and fit. I've interviewed several scouts who admitted they underestimated the drive these particular players possessed.
Now for the painful part - the busts. Emmanuel Mudiay at pick 7 never developed the shooting touch to complement his physical tools. His career 32% three-point percentage simply wasn't adequate for a modern point guard. But the most disappointing selection, from my perspective, was Jahlil Okafor at pick 3. His traditional post game felt outdated from day one, and his defensive limitations made him unplayable in crucial moments. Philadelphia's decision to select another center after taking Joel Embiid the previous year never made strategic sense to me. Okafor's -3.7 plus-minus during his rookie season highlighted his defensive struggles immediately.
The fascinating case study is Kristaps Porzingis at pick 4. Many initially criticized this selection, but he quickly silenced doubters by averaging 14.3 points and 7.3 rebounds as a rookie. This demonstrates how initial "bust" labels can be premature, though his subsequent injury history shows another dimension of draft risk. What I've learned from tracking these careers is that team development systems matter as much as raw talent. Players like Justise Winslow (pick 10) showed tremendous defensive potential but never found the right offensive role, while Terry Rozier (pick 16) flourished when given opportunity in Boston's system.
The international selections tell another compelling story. Mario Hezonja at pick 5 never adapted to NBA physicality despite his athletic gifts, while Willy Hernangomez at pick 35 became a quality rotation big. The variance in international evaluation remains staggering - some teams have specialized in identifying overseas talent while others consistently misevaluate how skills will translate.
Reflecting on this draft seven years later, the patterns that emerge are both predictable and surprising. The successful organizations typically prioritized versatility and work ethic over specialized skills. They valued players who could defend multiple positions and showed capacity for development. The failures often stemmed from overvaluing traditional statistics or physical measurements without considering fit and modern game requirements. What's particularly striking is how several second-round picks outproduced lottery selections, suggesting either poor evaluation or development systems. Personally, I believe the draft's ultimate lesson is that organizational patience and proper role definition matter more than raw draft position. The 2015 class serves as a perfect case study in why teams must balance immediate needs with long-term value, a lesson some franchises still haven't learned despite the overwhelming evidence provided by these career trajectories.
