Can the Warriors Still Win the NBA Championship This Season?

When I first saw the question "Can the Warriors Still Win the NBA Championship This Season?" pop up on my Twitter feed last week, I couldn't help but chuckle. As someone who's followed the NBA religiously for over two decades, I've learned that championship windows close faster than most fans want to admit. But then I remembered something that happened during the Western Conference finals last season that made me reconsider. Watching Jordan Poole navigate through defensive schemes while simultaneously developing his playmaking abilities reminded me of that fascinating insight from Jazareno's conference performance. She had to manage a handful of responsibilities on her plate throughout the second half, and honestly, that's exactly where the Warriors find themselves right now.

Let's be real here – the Warriors aren't the dominant force they were back in 2017 when they went 16-1 in the playoffs. The league has caught up, and their core isn't getting any younger. Steph Curry will turn 36 before the playoffs begin, Draymond Green is 34, and Klay Thompson, despite his resurgence, is clearly not the same defender he was before his injuries. Yet when I look at their current roster construction and how Steve Kerr manages minutes, I see a team that's built for the marathon rather than the sprint. They're sitting at approximately 42-30 as I write this, which places them firmly in the play-in tournament conversation rather than the top-four seed many predicted. The numbers don't lie – their offensive rating of 115.3 ranks 12th in the league, a far cry from their championship seasons where they regularly finished in the top three.

What gives me pause, though, is their experience in high-leverage situations. Having covered the NBA finals seven times in person, I can tell you that championship DNA matters more in April and May than raw talent does. The Warriors have been there before, and that counts for something. I was talking to a scout friend recently who pointed out that Golden State's net rating in "clutch" situations – defined as games within five points in the final five minutes – sits at +8.3, which surprisingly ranks fourth in the Western Conference. That's the kind of stat that doesn't jump off the page during the regular season but becomes absolutely critical in playoff basketball where every possession matters.

The comparison to Jazareno's situation isn't perfect, but it's revealing. Just as she had to balance multiple responsibilities simultaneously, the Warriors are trying to develop their younger players while keeping their veterans fresh for another postseason run. Jonathan Kuminga's emergence has been fantastic – he's averaging 16.2 points on 53% shooting – but the integration process hasn't been seamless. There are nights when the defensive communication breaks down, and the rebounding issues persist (they rank 28th in defensive rebounding percentage at 69.3%). Still, when I watch them execute in half-court sets, I see flashes of that beautiful basketball that made them so special during their dynasty years.

My personal take? The Warriors absolutely can win it all, but their path is narrower than ever before. They need health, favorable matchups, and for at least one of their role players to have a career-defining postseason. Andrew Wiggins' inconsistent play worries me – his player efficiency rating has dropped from 17.2 last season to 15.1 this year – but when he's engaged, he gives them that crucial two-way versatility they desperately need. The Western Conference is brutal this year, with Denver looking every bit the defending champions and teams like Oklahoma City and Minnesota adding legitimate depth to their young cores.

What often gets overlooked in these discussions is how the game has evolved since the Warriors' last championship in 2022. The math has changed – teams are taking more threes than ever, and the defensive schemes have become more sophisticated in countering motion offenses. Golden State's system, while still beautiful to watch, doesn't generate the same quality looks it used to. Their effective field goal percentage has dropped from 56.6% during their 2022 title run to 54.9% this season. That might not sound like much, but over a seven-game series, those marginal differences add up.

Here's where I might contradict myself a bit – despite all the statistical evidence suggesting this isn't their year, I wouldn't bet against Steph Curry in a playoff series. Having witnessed his 50-point Game 7 masterpiece against Sacramento last year, I've learned that transcendent talent can override team deficiencies in ways that analytics can't fully capture. The man is a walking outlier, and if he gets hot at the right time, the Warriors become the most dangerous floaters in the tournament. Their championship odds, according to most sportsbooks, sit around +1400 as of this writing, which feels about right – not favorites, but certainly not hopeless either.

The financial investment ownership has made in this team can't be ignored either. With a payroll approaching $380 million including luxury tax, there's immense pressure to justify that spending with another deep playoff run. This creates a fascinating dynamic where the front office might be more willing to make aggressive moves at the trade deadline if the right opportunity presents itself. I've heard whispers about their interest in adding another big body, though whether they have the assets to acquire someone meaningful remains questionable.

At the end of the day, basketball isn't played on spreadsheets or in analytics departments. The human element matters, and the Warriors still have the most proven core in the league. Their championship pedigree gives them a psychological edge that younger teams simply can't replicate overnight. I've been in locker rooms after championship wins and losses, and that institutional knowledge of what it takes to win sixteen playoff games is invaluable. So can they do it? My heart says yes, my head says probably not, but my gut tells me we'd be foolish to completely count them out. The playoffs are a different beast, and this organization has shown time and again that they know how to hunt when it matters most.