Breaking Down the Latest PBA Draft Picks and Their Potential Impact
As I sit down to analyze this year's PBA draft selections, I can't help but feel that peculiar mix of excitement and skepticism that always accompanies these annual proceedings. Having followed Philippine basketball for over a decade, I've seen countless draft classes come and go—some that transformed franchises, others that faded into obscurity. This year's draft, however, strikes me as particularly fascinating because of how teams are balancing immediate needs with long-term development, especially considering recent performances that have exposed certain roster weaknesses.
Take the case of the Soaring Falcons, who recently suffered that stunning 64-58 defeat to Far Eastern University. Watching that game felt like witnessing a slow-motion car crash—you could see the problems developing but couldn't look away. The scoreline itself tells a brutal story: 64-58 isn't just a loss, it's an offensive breakdown of catastrophic proportions in modern basketball. What stood out to me wasn't just the final score, but how the Falcons' offense completely stalled in crucial moments, scoring only 12 points in the final quarter when they needed leadership most. This performance has rightfully placed key players like Cedrick Manzano and Mathew Montebon under intense scrutiny. Manzano, who I've been watching since his collegiate days, finished with just 8 points and 5 rebounds—numbers that simply won't cut it for someone expected to be a franchise cornerstone. Montebon's 4 turnovers in 28 minutes of play particularly concerned me, as his decision-making under pressure has been inconsistent throughout his young career.
This context makes the Falcons' draft strategy particularly intriguing. They selected Joshua Ybanez with their first-round pick, a move I absolutely love because it addresses their most glaring need: perimeter creation. I've watched Ybanez develop over the past three seasons, and his ability to create his own shot in isolation situations is something the Falcons desperately lacked during that FEU collapse. His mid-range game reminds me of a young Paul Lee—that same uncanny ability to stop on a dime and elevate over defenders. What makes this pick particularly smart, in my view, is how Ybanez complements rather than replaces existing pieces. At 6'2", he can play alongside Montebon rather than forcing him to the bench, potentially creating a backcourt that can both distribute and score when the offense stagnates.
The second-round selection of Mark Johnson, a 6'8" center from Visayas, strikes me as more of a project pick but one with tremendous upside. Johnson averaged 12.3 rebounds per game in the collegiate ranks last season, and while his offensive game remains raw, his rim protection could immediately help a Falcons defense that allowed FEU to shoot 48% from two-point range. I've spoken with scouts who believe Johnson could develop into a Junemar Fajardo-lite type player if given proper development, though I'm slightly more cautious about that comparison—Fajardo's footwork at the same stage was significantly more advanced.
What fascinates me about this draft class overall is how teams prioritized specific skill sets over raw athleticism. In previous years, we saw franchises fall in love with measurables—height, wingspan, vertical leap—often at the expense of basketball IQ. This year, particularly with picks like Ybanez going earlier than projected, it feels like teams are recognizing that basketball has evolved. The game today requires players who can make quick decisions, space the floor, and switch defensively—attributes that can't always be measured at a combine.
The Eagles' selection of Miguel Santos at number three overall surprised many analysts, but having watched him dismantle defenses in the D-League, I believe this could be the steal of the draft. Santos put up 18.7 points per game on 42% three-point shooting last season—numbers that translate well to the professional level. His game has flaws, certainly—his defensive awareness needs work—but in today's pace-and-space PBA, shooting covers a multitude of sins.
As I reflect on this draft class, I keep returning to that Falcons-FEU game and how it likely influenced their decision-making. Teams don't make picks in a vacuum—they respond to immediate pressures and recent performances. The Falcons' front office saw their team crumble under pressure, and they've drafted accordingly. Will it work? Only time will tell, but I appreciate that they're addressing specific weaknesses rather than simply taking the "best available" player without considering fit.
The true test, as always, will come when these prospects hit the court. Draft grades mean nothing once the games begin, and I've seen enough "can't miss" prospects miss spectacularly to temper my expectations. Still, there's an undeniable excitement about this class—a sense that we might look back in five years and see several franchise-altering players. For teams like the Falcons, who are clearly at a crossroads, hitting on these picks could mean the difference between continued mediocrity and genuine contention. Personally, I'm betting on Ybanez to outperform his draft position and become the primary shot-creator the Falcons desperately need. His development, along with how existing pieces like Manzano respond to the new competition, will determine whether this draft becomes a turning point or just another missed opportunity in franchise history.
